Summary of Thematic Session "Space-based Information for Disaster Management"

4 October 2010 (13:30 – 17:30)

Chair Mohammad Asif Khan, University of Peshawar, Pakistan
Co-Chair P. S. Roy, Indian Institute of Remote Sensing, ISRO, India
Rapporteur Tek Jung Mahat, ICIMOD
Coordinator Amarnath Giriraj, ICIMOD


Support from space: The United Nations Platform for Space-based Information for Disaster Management and Emergency Response (UNSPIDER
Shirish Ravan, UN-SPIDER, Austria

Managed by the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA), United Nations Platform for Space-based Information for Disaster Management and Emergency Response (UN-SPIDER) Programme works as a platform to facilitate the use of space-based technologies for disaster management and emergency response. Currently operating from its head quarter in Vienna and another office in Bonn, soon UN SPIDER will start working from Beijing with the focus in the Asia-Pacific region.

UN-SPIDER aims to improve coordination among the geo-spatial community, improve access of members to space-based information, increase awareness and help develop capacity of the users. UN-SPIDER gets data from International and Regional Initiatives/Institutions, including ICIMOD, Regional Support Offices, UN Agencies and National Focal points.

Rapid response mapping to support disaster management in Himalayan region
Amarnath Giriraj, ICIMOD

For any countries in the region, developing capacity to deal with the disasters is the biggest challenge, which is very complicated due to nature and distribution of the disasters. Several organisations are in working in this area which needs to be further enhanced to have more harmonised response in order to meet regional challenges. Starting from floods and earthquakes to forest fires and to GLOF events, application of space technologies is very critical in effectively addressing the disaster events.

Space-based information for assessing the community vulnerability to flood disasters in mountainous Himalayas
Shakil A. Romshoo, University of Kashmir, India

Himalayan ecosystem is very fragile hence we need to have better understanding of any problems before we start responding. A small failure in our disaster plan may fail the overall response, which leads to increased cost in the next phase with exaggerated loss. Only the better understanding of all the contributing factors will help to develop effective disaster response. The research methodology established should help “socialization” of the science and technology that benefits for the flood disaster prone communities by developing robust strategies for reducing their vulnerability and risk to disasters through appropriate development planning.

Monitoring vulnerability: Integration of earth observation for enhanced disaster risk reduction
Stefan Kienberger, Salzburg, University, Austria

Vulnerability has to be seen in different contexts; temporal, spatial and subject. For the information generated by the experts in very technical ways, to be better noticed by the policy makers, the information has to go in condensed form. There should be clear understanding from community to district level and if needed to other higher levels too. Understanding of the driving forces from a perspective of the communities is very important which later should be quantified and prioritized for effective response


Spatial modelling of fire-induced carbon emission in tropical forests: a case study of Afram Headwaters
Forest Reserve, Ghana
Yousif Hussin, ITC, Netherlands

Tropical forests are a major reservoir of global terrestrial carbon, and thus play an essential role in the carbon cycle. However, the alarming rate of deforestation and degradation in recent times is changing the status of tropical forests in the global carbon-climate regime. Fire does not only reduce the forest, but also implies that more carbon remain in the atmosphere because they are not sequestered. More importantly, large amounts of carbon held in the forest biomass are released into the atmosphere when the trees are burned. Degraded forest experienced the most intensity fires in the experiment sites in comparison to others.

The Attabad debris dam, Upper Hunza Valley, North Pakistan: A potential hazard
Ghazanfar Khattak, University of Peshawar, Pakistan

On January 04, 2010, a massive landslide was triggered in upper Hunza Valley. The landslide buried the lower Attabad village, damaging 3km stretch of Karakoram Highway (KKH) and resulted in 20 fatalities. The landslide mass also blocked the Hunza River and impounded a lake within the blocked drainage. However this issue didn’t receive much attention after the Pakistan Flood and similar disaster in neighbouring countries. This has shown the increase disaster incidences and a clear need to be better prepared to respond to these disasters more effectively, and even within very short period of time.


Seismic vulnerability assessment for Chittagong Hill Tract municipalities of Bangladesh
Anisur Rahman, Asian Disaster Preparedness, Centre, Thailand

Vulnerability assessment is very important to indentify areas that may require planning considerations, assess level of readiness and preparedness to deal with a disaster before disaster occurs, estimate potential losses (before or after earthquake or other disaster hit) and to prioritize mitigation measures that need to be implemented to reduce future losses.


Reconstructing Indian census variables using remotely sensed environmental metrics
Gary Watmough, University of Southampton, UK

Limitations of the census can limit the usefulness of risk maps. Remote sensing increased spatial and temporal resolution may provide methods for up-dating census between enumerations. Hence for better reliability of out information it is important explore relationships between census variables and earth observation data.

Spatial and non-spatial information on flood monitoring and early warning system
Ponthip Limlahapun, Keio University, Japan

Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) is a freeware. The result derived using IFAS is displayed over the web-based - increase local recognition on critical disaster information and it provides better visualization of flood occurrence - Flood extent affected areas local infrastructure such as houses, roads, etc. in order to be prepared for mitigation and recovery plans. The data format can be converted and transferred to compatible GIS software.


Glacial Lakes and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Himalayas
Pradeep Mool, ICIMOD

Monitoring of ice, snow and glacial lakes is not one time event. It needs to be regularly monitored considering its complexity, uncertainty, dynamics and risks associated with it. Hence we have to go for regular mapping of the glacial environment, its monitoring, operation of early warning systems, continuing mitigation works, develop capacity of the people associated, including local communities and promote knowledge and experience sharing at regional scale. Professionals in the Himalayan region can benefit from similar experience in the Andes.

Current Technologies to Better Assess and Monitor Potential Glacial Hazards
Jeffery Kargel, University of Arizonia, USA

Application of state of the art technologies, like UAV and USV platforms and other sensor signals can are critical to better monitor moraine dams and GLOF.

Overall summary:

All the presentations emphasized the use of Earth Observation data in making effective decisions and executing smart responses to disaster incidences. Fostering regional cooperation among ICIMOD member countries and others would help better understand different phases of disaster management cycle. It was stressed often times to bridge the data gap and promote the culture of sharing of information and knowledge among the research communities for decision making process, where Earth Observation plays pivotal role. In order to maximize the benefits from Earth Observation technologies, it was suggested that the regional member countries activate charters and transfer that information to disaster communities.

Summary of Thematic Session on "Remote Sensing of Cryosphere"

Thematic Session II: "Remote Sensing of Cryosphere"

Venue: Malhar Hall, Hotel Soaltee, Kathmandu, Nepal

Date: 4 October 2010 (13:30-17:30)

Chair: Bruce Raup, NSIDC, USA

Co-chair: Arun B. Shrestha, ICIMOD

Rapporteur: Ujol Sherchan, ICIMOD

Coordinator: Deo Raj Gurung, ICIMOD

The thematic session focused on the issues of snow cover mapping and modeling. Much of the papers presented focused on the improvement of accuracy of the predominant MODIS snow cover algorithm. Several factors, such as mountain shadows, (ice) clouds, and the snow albedo effect in particular in higher altitudes, have been reducing the accuracy of conventional algorithms.

Imaging spectroscopy of light-absorbing impurities in snow and ice, Thomas H. Painter, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, USA

Studies of aerosols and their impacts on snow are relatively brand new. Dust particles from the deserts of Western America are getting into the mountain systems of the region. If one puts aerosols in snow, it melts faster. However the full implications of this phenomenon are not known. There is not adequate Earth Observation system in place for light –absorbing impurities in snow and ice. In the IPCC report, the understanding of surface albedo land use is seen as medium to low, hence the need to ramp up research in this poorly understood area. Some of the findings of the research done in Western America:

• Snow melts 26-56 days earlier,
• Five- fold increase in dustloading since the 1800s,
• Run off comes 3 weeks earlier and loss of runoff in the order of 5% every year

Comparable study in the Himalaya shows a 4-fold increase in dustloading since the 1850s, this means substantial quantity of dust particles are getting into the atmosphere, including black carbon, which affects albedo.

Snow properties from MODIS show that radiative forcing in snow is relatively qualitative, the greater the red in the image shown the greater the radiative forcing. And where MODIS doesn’t have a band- there is spectral problem. IPCC has been insisting on quantitative analysis, so there is still a long way to go to meet that expectation.

Development and validation of snow cover monitoring algorithm for Himalayan region, Anil V. Kulkarni, Indian Institute of Sciences, India

An algorithm based on Normalised Difference Snow Index (NDSI) has been developed using data of AWiFS sensor of Indian Remote Sensing Satellite. Is NDSI a unique value? Field validation of NDSI was obtained for different Himalayan features (snow, vegetation, water, etc), not to mention slope angle. Slope angle has very little impact on NDSI. Influence of mixed pixels (mixed vegetation: ¼.1/2, ¾, 0, vegetation full) on spectral reflectance and NDSI was also determined. Snow cover mapping of selected basins was conducted for October – June (2002-2005), using the10-DAILY BASIN-WISE MAXIMUM SNOW COVER. Validation of algorithm: Out of 207 observatories, there were 132 matches, 2 unmatches, 73 excluded due to cloud. If there are clouds, there is problem as they are mostly ice clouds. If iced clouds data set was rejected, if ice-free clouds, used. Validation of algorithm: between 95.8% to 99.6% accuracy for various classes such as dense vegetation and snow/ice.

Some results obtained are as follows:

• Mean snow fall Western Himalaya (Bhaga and Ravi basins): 2004-5: 739 cm; 2005-6: 606 cm; 2006-7: 596 cm
• There was some stabilization in the Bhaga basin, but no stabilization in Ravi basin.

A refinement of MODIS snow cover area algorithm for mountainous Tibetan Plateau region, Bohui Tang, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China

Tang’s presentation highlighted NSIDC’s snow cover algorithm and its drawbacks, lack of corrections for atmospheric effect, topography, not eliminating the effects of illumination and viewing geometry on the values of the used reflectance. He proposed a better algorithm that tries to address all these drawbacks, which was tried in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan region, with the result that it maximized snow cover area, reduced cloud contamination and filled the gap. One finding was that NSIDC’s algorithm mistakes many pixels as snow covers in southern Bhutan which does not exist as snow cover in the true color composited image. Validation of the proposed method was done in relation to in situ data obtained from 95 stations in the HKH region for the following five dates – January 10,22, Apr14,Oct16, Nov 22, Dec12 of the year 2003- and the corrected classification (%) obtained was above 91% for each of those days.

The conclusions from the study were as follows:

• NSIDC’s MODIS snow cover products overestimate the snow cover
• The proposed algorithm can estimate the snow cover for the Himalayan region more feasible with accuracy better than 90%
• Estimating of the snow cover over heavy mountain regions needs to do atmospheric and topographic corrections

Large scale monitoring of snow cover area and variability in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region, Deo Raj Gurung, ICIMOD, Nepal

The lack of data on cryosphere is a problem in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region, which boasts 10 major river systems. The scope of the study was snow cover distribution pattern with respect to aspect, altitude and slope; intra-annual and inter- annual trend and seasonal trend in the HKH region. It used MODIS 8-day products, SRTM DEM v4 for slope, elevation and aspect, and HKH boundary data from ICIMOD file and basin boundary data were generated from SRTM DEM. Cloud removal methods employed in the study were successful in removing clouds significantly and improving the products. Snow cover area was found to be in agreement with the trend. It was depleting except in Amudarya, Indus and Yangtse basins. Depletion rate was highest in Brahmaputra basin and accumulation was highest in Indus basin. Strong linear regression relation was observed between percent snow cover and elevation in all basins except in Tarim basin (R=69). Jan, Feb, Mar, Oct, Nov, Dec indicate maximum monthly variation in snow cover area. While absolute accuracy based on in-situ data from 168 stations varied from 46.5% to 97.30%, relative accuracy based on high resolution snow product stood at 93%.

However with regard to inter-annual and seasonal trends, no clear pattern or trend was seen.

Monitoring Sikkim Himalayan Cryosphere, Smriti Basnet, Department of Science and Technology, Sikkim, India

The study was carried out in the Tista and Rangit Subbasins of Sikkim using AWiFS data of Oct-June taken in 5-day intervals from 2004-2008. It was the first study of its kind in the Sikkim Himalayas. The NDSI-based algorithm was run on fully automated mode. It generated snow and cloud for 5 daily products and maximum snow extent for composite (10 daily) product.

The following results and conclusions were obtained:

• All four years (2004-2008) showed similar snow cover patterns throughout Sikkim state, including in the two sub-basins.
• Maximum snow extent in February suggests Sikkim receives higher snow precipitation from Western Disturbances than North East Monsoon.
• Continuous snow precipitation even during summer months unlike in the Western Himalayas

The challenge remaining is how to address the problem associated with cloud cover and vegetation. The former may be addressed with development of newer microwave technique, where RISAT data would be of prime importance; the latter, through the development of a better algorithm to monitor snow cover under canopy.

Monitoring snow cover dynamic in the trans-Himalayan region of Nepal using MODIS data, Keshav P. Paudel, University of Bergen, Norway

The study focused on the Mustang District of Nepal had a two-fold objective: to improve and develop method to reduce cloud cover as well as examine the spatial and temporal variability of snow cover. At the heart of the study was a 5-step cloud removal methodology. The results obtained were as follows:

• This cloud removal methodology was found to be a robust technique
• High interannual and intra-seasonal variability
• Peak snow day shifted forward by 6.7 days per year
• Feb/March are main snow months
• Declining trend of snow cover duration in agro-pastoral areas of Mustang

Simulation of the spatial distribution of snow cover in the Himalayan river basin of Nepal and comparison with MODIS satellite product, Maheswor Shrestha, University of Tokyo, Japan

In Nepal, many studies have been conducted using conventional hydrological models, but none gives spatial –distributed snow cover. The model used in the study is Water and Energy Budget based Distributed Hydrological Model (WEB-DHM). The study coverd the period 2 Oct 2002 to 25 June 2003 and simulated the spatial distribution of snow cover in the Dudh Koshi basin of Nepal.

The results obtained were as follows:

• In general, WEB-DHM-S with a three layered energy balance based snowmelt module is found to be able to simulate the spatial distribution of snow cover in theDudhkoshi region of eastern Nepal Himalaya.
• Snow cover simulation is comparable to the MODIS 8 daily snow cover product (MOD10A2). Land surface temperature compared to MODIS 8 daily LSTV5 (MOD11A2) shows that LST is underestimated during the entire post monsoon and winter season.
• The snow line altitude has been simulated well and the elevation zone 4500-5500 is found very sensitive in the overestimation of SCA.
• The seasonal snowmelt contribution to the discharge at Rabuwabazar is found insignificant however multiyear simulation is necessary to draw a solid conclusion. Nevertheless, this study provides a basis for the application of WEB-DHM-S in cold and high elevated regions to simulate spatial distribution of seasonal snow coverage.

Remote sensing inputs for snowmelt runoff modeling and glacial lakes mapping

K Abdul Hakeem, NRSC, India

The study focused on the snowmelt runoff modelling in the Sutlej Basin of India, especially with reference to seasonal forecasting in April and revised forecasting in May. Although there are lots of observation points in the lower part of the basin, the upper part actually lies outside India (and in China). The timely forecast is important for planning and adaptive management of multipurpose projects (drinking water, electricity, etc) in the region. It was found that the highflow season (April, May, June) contributed to 27% of annual flows, out of that, the month of June alone contributed about 57%, while the rest was made up by April and May. Temperature trend closely followed the discharge trend in the Bagra reservoir. Also efforts were underway to develop an inventory of glacial lakes and water bodies in Tawang basin and other basins of the India Himalayas.

The research of snow cover monitoring and analysis with multi data source over Tibetan Plateau, Liu Yujie, China Meteorological Administration, China

The research objective was to figure out the main characteristics of snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau using satellite data useful in climate analysis. The data showed the main climatic characteristics of snow cover in duration, variation and distribution over the Tibetan Plateau and helped better understand the relationship between winter snow over TP and the next summer precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

Based on the 13-year data, in both winter half year (Nov-Apr) and summer half year (May-Oct), there were two rich snow cover regions seen in the western and eastern parts of the Tibetan Plateau. This finding calls for detailed sub-regional analysis to better understand these two rich snow cover regions. The snow coverage duration varied from year to year. Snow cover decreased from 1980 to 1990, and increased until 1998, and then decreased again until recently, but snow cover above 3000 m has been decreasing more slowly. The snow cover over TP has 18-20 years large period variation and 3-5 years short period variation The snowline over TP has been upward of 3000 m height in summers and autumns in recent years. Moreover, winter snow cover in Tibetan Plateau has positive correlation with spring and summer precipitation along the Yangtze River, and Inverse correlation with spring and summer precipitation in Hunan and Heibei regions. This analysis is useful as it can potentially help identify factors contributing to “flooding in South China and drought in North China in spring and summer time.”

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS & DISCUSSIONS

A few of the salient points that emerged from the question and answer session and ensuing discussions are summarized below:

• There was a case study presented on the application of snow melt run off forecast in the Sutlej basin of India, first in April and then the revised forecast in June based on the availability of newer data. As the timely forecast is very useful for planning and adaptive management of multi-purpose projects downstream, this good practice has a potential for replication and upscaling in the other major river basins of the region.
• With regard to snow cover mapping and modelling the issue of time period covered in the study was seen as crucial. The general impression was that the 10-year period was inadequate for snow trend analysis or for drawing any broad generalisations. The suggestion was to go for longer-period data, up to 30-years. A suggestion was put forward to also consider historical data such as AVHRR snow products.
• There was a suggestion from participants to complement data obtained from optical remote sensing with microwave remote sensing since the latter has the capability to penetrate cloud covers. However, there are limitations associated with microwave remote sensing due to mountain topography, not to mention cost. As one participant put it: “Passive microwave may introduce far greater errors than waiting for clouds to go away!”
• As India is developing an inventory of glacial lakes and water bodies in the basins of the Indian Himalayas, perhaps the institute in charge – the Central Water Commission under the Ministry of Water Resources - could inform ICIMOD of the goings-on and may be also collaborate together – as ICIMOD already has some experience in inventorying glacial lakes in the region.
• It was felt that the culture of data sharing has quite a way to go in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region. It was suggested that access to data should be provided to all in the region and beyond in order to accelerate the progress of science for the benefits of humanity. For instance, ICIMOD makes data available through its GeoPortal. Perhaps the countries of the region should have a clear and more generous policy toward provision of satellite images to aid with disaster preparedness (not just in post disaster situations) as well as climate change adaptation.
• Ø There was a call for communicating the (cryospheric) research findings to the world-at-large in layman's terms, including their implications on the livelihoods of mountain inhabitants and those living downstream, especially in the context of climate change adaptation.

Daniel E. Irwin from NASA highlighting the importance of SERVIR project

Thematic Sessions: Spatial/Disaster and Cryospere/snow

Today’s afternoon programme saw the two first technical sessions of the International Symposium on Benefiting from Earth Observation. The first theme was Space-based Information for Disaster Management. While most of the speakers presented opportunities of space-based information for disasters caused by fires, floods, GLOFs and earth quakes, a common theme of the session was on communicating these opportunities to policy- and decision-makers. The interface between the communities and the experts, as well as the politicians and the specified data would have another important benefit. To contribute to disaster prevention and preparedness. Institutions such as UN-Spider and SERVIR are already readily providing disaster-related data. However, only ten countries are signatories to the International Charter on and still most countries are lacking the capacity to actually activate the charter. The policy support and the condensing of information therefore – next to the gathering and analysis of it – becomes a key area for involvement.

The second Thematic Session dealt with the Remoting Sensing of Cryosphere and focused on the issues of snow cover mapping and modeling. Much of the papers presented focused on the improvement of accuracy of the predominant MODIS snow cover algorithm. Several factors, such as mountain shadows, (ice) clouds, and the snow albedo effect in particular in higher altitudes, have been reducing the accuracy of conventional algorithms. A second session dedicated to the cryosphere is planned for tomorrow morning and will focus on glacier mapping and monitoring.

Inauguration of Earth Symposium 2010 a full success

The inauguration event brought together dignitaries from the Governments of Nepal and India, the Group on Earth Observation, USAID, researchers and scientists from the region and abroad, policy-makers.

In its introduction Andreas Schild, Director-General of ICIMOD, expressed his anticipation of the event. Describing ICIMOD’s mandate he emphasized the role of ICIMOD’s contribution in three crucial ways: by focusing on the mountain perspective, catering to niches ignored by other players and cater to the needs of the various stakeholders around the Hindu Kush-Himalaya region. While acknowledging the rising impact and responsibility ICIMOD is carrying, also with the inauguration of SERVIR Himalaya he encouraged the participants: “We cannot play this role unless you are helping us – do not limit yourselves in looking solely at the opportunities, but identify the applications.”

The inaugural address was delivered by Rt. Honourable Subash Chandra Nembang, The Constituent Assembly Chairman, Government of Nepal. He emphasized the topicality of the issue. The government had been making conscious efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and in that context cooperated on a regional and international level. “Nepal is extremely vulnerable to both natural and human-induced climate change. As a developing country we are highly affected by changes in the monsoon patterns, the glaciers and our biodiversity. However, ICIMOD’s promotion of regional cooperation and international connections, for instance to NASA, will help improve our ability to take sound environmental decisions.”

Kevin Rushing, USAID, Nepal, addressed the distinguished audience: “We are improving our capacities and in strong need of your data, not only on what is happening, but also where it is happening. So many areas are affected, poverty, diseases, conflicts, biodiversity, food and security, access to natural resources, schools – if we know the locations, we can design our programs in such a meaningful way.”
Mr Michel Jarraud of the World Meteorological Organisation addressed the assembly through a video message and expressed his wish for increased cooperation with ICIMOD. The keynote speaker Prof. José Achache gave an overview over the international cooperation on geo-spatial data that has been so successful ever since the inception of GEOSS in 2007 and advocated the adherence to the GEO data sharing principles, at least amongst the ten GEO members.

Shri Jairam Ramesh, Minister of State for Environment and Forests, Government of India conveyed his enthusiastic message to build closer partnerships with Nepal and institutions like ICIMOD. In a rare event of a State Minister’s visit to Nepal his plea for cooperation was well-received by the audience.He announced the Indian government’s plan to start new satellites to observing climatic changes and forest cover changes. “We are setting up a new national institute of glaciology and are giving two fellowships to Nepali researchers under 35 years old.” He further alluded to future problems of water reduction and natural resources in forest areas. “We take our responsibilities very seriously. Although we did not cause global warming we want o be part of the solutions.” A first step is this year’s publication of the 2007 Climate Change inventory, as one of the first countries in the world.

Chairperson, Mr. Prasad Sharma, Minister of Environment, Nepal, closed the session by extending his congrats for the timely symposium, which is an “important milestone to synergize international benefits.” Basanta Shrestha, MENRIS Division Head, in his vote of thanks addressed all the speakers and reminded them of their common goal that had brought them together on that day, “to bring the benefits of Earth Observation to the mountain communities in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region”. Mr. Shrestha further welcomed the presence of representatives from all eight member countries’ space agencies and closed the session with a special round of applause to the youngest members of the conference, who are taking part in a week-long workshop. “You will be ambassadors of what you learn here and we wish that the knowledge and awareness will affect your networks and your actions.”

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India ready for regional cooperation

KATHMANDU: The Indian Minister for Environment and Forests Shri Jairam Ramesh urged enhanced regional cooperation to tackle environment issues, including climate change.Minister Ramesh is here on a three-day visit to discuss environment and conservation issues with the authorities of Nepal.

“The objective of my visit is to prepare better environment for bilateral and regional cooperation in the field of climate change and other trans-boundary issues on environment and conservation,” said Ramesh to media persons at an international symposium organised by International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). More details...